marshall_fire_fm10_CMIP5_current_historical.gif

Historical (left) and future (right) December days near Boulder, Colorado, on which the moisture level in 10-hour fuels is in the driest 10 percent of the historical record. Analysis based on results from 18 high-resolution climate models. Red dots show individual model projections. The dashed line shows the average of all models, and the gray box shows the central 50 percent of results. Models project that days with extremely dry 10-hour fuels have increased due to human-caused global warming. Graph by John Abatzoglou.