ENSOblog_cartoon1_climatological-forecast_20220421.png

(left) If the only forecast we can make for a hiker's path through the woods on a given day is that it will be similar to the long-term average, we call that outcome unpredictable. (right) If we can forecast occasions when a hiker's path will deviate from the climatological path, we say the future path has some level of predictability. NOAA Climate.gov cartoon.