ENSO Blog

A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their impacts.

Disclaimer

The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors.

Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.

Latest Blogs

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August 2022 ENSO update: Summer Nights

ENSO and Salmon

July 2022 La Niña update: comic timing

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ENSO

Index page for ENSO blog posts

Quick index: click the plus signs to expand lists
+ - ENSO 101 What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell? El Niño and La Niña Alert System Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities? How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts The Spring Predictability Barrier: we’d rather be on Spring Break Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one? Oceanic Kelvin waves: The next polar vortex* Betting on Climate Predictions The Walker Circulation: ENSO's atmospheric buddy The ENSO Signal and The Noise United States El Niño Impacts Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions ENSO Flavor of the Month Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring How will we know when an El Niño has arrived? Why Past ENSO Cases Aren’t the Key to Predicting the Current Case The life and death of El Niño Exploring ENSO in Ecuador ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO The Rise of El Niño and La Niña (Bjerknes feedback)
+ - Posts about monitoring ENSO The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign Dearest TAO: A love letter to marine-based observations Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?
+ - Posts about things other than ENSO Zooming in on some of NOAA’s latest seasonal hurricane forecast research How humans can affect the strength of tropical cyclones Meet ENSO’s neighbor, the Indian Ocean Dipole The polar vortex is going to make you put on a sweater. Be afraid. Be very afraid. Seeing Red Across the North Pacific Ocean: the Blob A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO The Madden Julian Oscillation has been active so far this winter. Here is why it matters. Another non-ENSO thing that affects seasonal forecasts El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex The tropics as a prime suspect behind the warm-cold split over North America during recent winters The role of the ocean in tempering global warming Butterflies, rounding errors, and the chaos of climate models Your eight-minute speed date with the Pacific Meridional Mode Going out for ice cream: a first date with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation What is the MJO, and why do we care? ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think How much do climate patterns influence predictability across the United States? Other climate patterns that impact U.S. winter climate Forecasting, Fast and Slow The Pacific-North American Pattern: the stomach sleeper of the atmosphere What is the jet stream? Ultraviolet (UV) radiation: Don’t feel the burn, avoid it! Do you know that El Niño has a little brother? (Atlantic Niño) On the sudden stratospheric warming and polar vortex of early 2021
+ - Posts about forecast verification The 2021-22 Winter Outlook: How well did it do? Winter outlook 2020-2021: a look back Grading the 2019-2020 winter outlook Winter outlook 2018-2019: How’d we do? Meteorological winter is over. How’d we do? (2017-18 winter) Winter Outlook 2016-17 – How did we do? The Incredible Growth of the 2015-16 El Niño followed by the Incredible Shrinking La Niña Forecast Winter’s finally over: How did the NOAA Climate Outlook do in 2014-15? Were Model Predictions of El Niño a Big Bust? (2014) 30% of the time, it rains every time Seasonal Verification Part 2: Electric Boogaloo Seasonal Verification Part 3: Verify with a Vengeance...This time it's probabilistic. How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately?
+ - Posts about ENSO impacts The long arm of the California drought A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser How might El Niño affect wildfires in California? ENSO and tornadoes More U.S. drought in a second-year La Niña? Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña? What about snow during La Niña winters? How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017? Fun with Statistics: El Niño and California Rainfall Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season United States El Niño Impacts Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña? ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think No, you can’t blame it all on El Nño With El Niño likely, what climate impacts are favored for the summer? Writing about La Niña, the U.S., and the Jet stream and THIS HAPPENS. Changes in ENSO impacts in a warming world CSI ENSO: The case of the missing central Pacific rainfall ENSO and your health: how the 2015-16 El Niño led to early warnings for global disease outbreaks When rivers reach the sky Tornados and La Niña, 2021 edition Catch a wave: how waves from the MJO and ENSO impact U.S. rainfall
+ - Posts about ENSO and climate change Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2 ENSO + Climate Change = Headache A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser Changes in ENSO impacts in a warming world Is ENSO running a fever, or is it global warming?
+ - Posts previewing the winter outlook What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2021-22 Winter Outlook What to expect this winter: November update to NOAA’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook No ENSO? NOAA still issues Winter Outlook! (2019-20) Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook Winter is coming: NOAA’s 2017-2018 Winter Outlook What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2016-17 Winter Outlook What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2015-16 outlook reveals what conditions are favored across the US What's in store for the United States this (2014-15) winter?
+ - Posts with guest authors Richard Allan: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming John Allen: Tornados and La Niña, 2021 edition Weston Anderson: ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields Marybeth Arcodia: Catch a wave: how waves from the MJO and ENSO impact U.S. rainfall Gerry Bell: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season Amy Butler: El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex Amy Butler: February and March madness: How winds miles above the Arctic may have brought wintry weather to mid-latitudes Laura Ciasto: Ultraviolet (UV) radiation: Don’t feel the burn, avoid it! Kim Cobb: A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser Mat Collins: Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2 Jason Furtado: Look South, ENSO Forecasters! Eric Guilyardi: Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models Mike Halpert: United States El Niño Impacts Dennis Hartmann: The warm-cold split over North America Kris Karnauskas:El Niño and the Galápagos Benjamin Kirtman: Another use for ENSO forecasts: predicting high-tide flooding in the U.S. Phil Klotzbach: How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017? Sang-Ki Lee: Do you know that El Niño has a little brother? Aaron Levine: Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring Mike McPhaden: Predicting El Niño Then and Now Ángel Muñoz: La Niña, did you orchestrate this? Adam Sobel: No El Niño yet, but temperatures in tropical atmosphere are already warm Amy Solomon, Gil Compo:The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign Andrew Watkins: El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond S.-Y. Simon Wang: How might El Niño affect wildfires in California? Ken Takahashi: One forecaster’s view on extreme El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ken Takahashi: ENSO forecasters in offices getting coffee Haiyan Teng: Coming to pay per view: Reigning champ ocean vs. the scrappy land Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore: ENSO and tornadoes Michael Tippett and Tim Delsole: What is predictability? Kai-Chih Tseng, with Nat Johnson: When rivers reach the sky S.-Y. Simon Wang: The long arm of the California drought Tim Woollings: What is the jet stream?
+ - Top of the month posts (forecast discussion) 2022 April 2022 La Niña update: measuring up March 2022 La Niña update: three-bean salad February 2022 La Niña update: just along for the ride January 2022 La Niña update: family game night 2021 December 2021 La Niña update: visual aids November 2021 La Niña update: movie night October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here! September 2021 ENSO update: feeling groovy August 2021 ENSO update: Rockin’ out of neutral? July 2021 ENSO update: La Niña Watch June 2021 ENSO update: neutral noodle May 2021 ENSO update: bye for now, La Niña! April 2021 ENSO update: spring triathlon March 2021 ENSO update: fine feathered friends February 2021 ENSO update: library time January 2021 La Niña update: remote destinations 2020 December 2020 La Niña update: walking in a La Niña winter wonderland November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens October 2020 La Niña update September 2020 ENSO update: La Niña is here! August 2020 ENSO update: ahoy, mateys July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch! June 2020 ENSO update: pet projects May 2020 ENSO update: road trip April 2020 ENSO Update: Alternative Communication March 2020 ENSO update: puzzle time February 2020 ENSO update: mind reading January 2020 ENSO update: new year, new you 2019 December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat November 2019 ENSO update: the people in your neighborhood October 2019 ENSO update: fright night September 2019 ENSO update: feeling neutral August 2019 El Niño Update: Stick a fork in it July 2019 El Niño update: I think I’ll go for a walk June 2019 ENSO Blog Update: Concentrate and ask again May 2019 El Niño Update: Feliz Cumpleaños April 2019 El Niño update: You are here March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring February 2019 ENSO Update: El Niño conditions are here 2018 December 2018 ENSO Update: relationship advice November 2018 ENSO Update: (Just a little bit of ) history repeating October 2018 ENSO update: Trick or treat! September 2018 ENSO Update: back to school August 2018 ENSO update: game show edition June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! May 2018 ENSO update: Thar she goes April 2018 ENSO update: what lurks beneath March 2018 ENSO update: come on in, the water’s fine February 2018 La Niña update: tuned in January 2018 La Niña update: summiting the peak 2017 December 2017 La Niña update: Double, double November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back! October 2017 ENSO update: Still watching for La Niña September ENSO update: La Niña Watch! August 2017 ENSO update: Extreme neutral! July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady June 2017 ENSO update: pancake breakfast May 2017 ENSO Update: Mayday April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals March 2017 ENSO update: on the fence February 2017 ENSO update: bye-bye, La Niña! January 2017 ENSO update: Happy New Year! 2017 December 2016 ENSO Update: Weeble wobbles November 2016 La Niña update: Hello, lady! Antici...pation: October 2016 ENSO forecast September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels August 2016 ENSO update: Wavy gravy July 2016 ENSO discussion: Enjoy neutral while it lasts! June 2016 ENSO discussion: The new neutral May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: Switcheroo! April 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: What goes up… March 2016 El Niño update: Spring Forward February 2016 El Niño update: Q & A…and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking January El Niño update: It’s got a lot going on 2015 December El Niño update: phenomenal cosmic powers! November El Niño update: It’s a small world October 2015 El Niño update: Pumpkin spice September 2015 El Niño Update and Q&A August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious July 2015 El Niño update: Bruce Lee? June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school? Details on the April ENSO Forecast March 2015 ENSO discussion: El Niño is here Details on the February ENSO Discussion: On the edge? January ENSO update: The little engine that couldn't quite 2014 December's ENSO Update: Close, but no cigar. Details on the November ENSO forecast: slip-slidin’ away? Details on the October ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: Trust, but verify. Details on the September ENSO diagnostic discussion—late, or never? Details on the August 7th ENSO Discussion: how has the forecast changed? EN... SO?
+ - Elsewhere on Climate.gov ENSO page/US impacts tab ENSO page/global impacts tab How El Niño and La Niña affect the jet stream and U.S. winter climate Global impacts of El Niño and La Niña Winter temperature patterns for every El Niño since 1950 Winter precipitation patterns during every El Niño since 1950 Precipitation patterns during every La Niña winter since 1950 Temperature patterns during every La Niña winter since 1950