Beyond the Data Blog

What a difference the day makes In the last Beyond the Data entry, we investigated the role that late-spring rainfall plays in summer temperatures. The short, short version: For much-to-most of the contiguous United States (CONUS), summer temperatures have a relationship with (they “listen to”) late spring precipitation. Wetter places in June tend to be cooler through summer, but the tendency is slight. The relationship is not very strong to begin with, explaining about a quarter of the variance, and diminishes to zero away from the south and interior parts of the CONUS. I subsequently got a note from a great colleague from back in my state climate office days. Jim Angel, the Illino…   Read article

In climate monitoring, we often use the term “outcome” to describe the results of a season. For example, “For most of the United States, seasonal outcomes during spring 2012 included a record-warm March and a record-warm spring.” Outcomes in climate—like in life—are a combination of factors. And at certain times of year—like certain times in life—different factors emerge as relatively more important to an outcome. In climate, spring dampness is one of those factors that emerges as important for warm season outcomes, particularly for the interior of the continent. This week, we’ll go Beyond the Data to examine how spring precipitation influences summer temperatures, and why this mat…   Read article

This week, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (and several other institutions) reported April 2016 to be the warmest April on record for the planet. If broken temperature records seem to you like, well, a broken record, you’re onto something: all of the last twelve months now hold the “Warmest [INSERT MONTH HERE] on Record” title. That’s twelve months in a row, and that’s never happened. But that global average is just that: an average. Each month—even the warmest ones—bring pockets of cold. Conversely, they also bring regions that are colossally warm. This is true over time, too. In recent decades, as month-to-month weather fades into a clearer signal of climate, regio…   Read article

Welcome to Beyond the Data. This week, we’ll talk a little bit about wildfire. Specifically, prairie fire. Before we do that, I hope you don’t mind if I take a second to process a couple of facts about March 2016. First, that the world’s land areas averaged 4.2°F warmer than the month’s 20th century average. Second, compared to March’s 1981-2010 “normal,” the Northern Hemisphere’s combined area of “missing” sea ice and snow cover would cover more than a tenth of the moon. (stunned silence) Whoa. Now let’s talk about the prairie In our previous entry, we visited a little bit about 2016’s very warm start across the United States, and the regional pockets of very dry conditions amon…   Read article

The data are in, and it’s official: March was warm. And parts of the country were dry. And parts were really wet. And you can read all about it in the monthly State of the Climate report. Let’s go Beyond the Data for March, and hit on a few more complex items embedded within the basic statistics. Unprecedented widespread warmth If you were alive during March 2016, and I’m betting you were, you witnessed U.S. history. One stunning feature from the March 2016 temperature map was just how universally warm the month was. Every one of the 357 climate divisions across the contiguous United States and Alaska ended up - at least - in the “warmer than normal” category. That’s harder than …   Read article