Skip to main content

Is El Niño AWOL?

Is El Niño missing? What happened to the rainfall I was promised?  What is going on?  Some quick answers for those who don't want to read it all (but then you’ll miss the graphical awesomeness I coded up with an assist from climate.gov staff.  So read to the end. Please.):

I. No. It’s still here.  Based on measurements of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, this El Niño is the biggest event we’ve seen in almost twenty years

II. NOAA CPC climate forecasters don’t promise precipitation. For some regions of the U.S., we provide seasonal outlooks for an increased chance of precipitation over a span of a 3-month (seasonal) average.

III. I really don’t know.  I ask myself this all the time (particularly during election years). 

Here, I’m going to present some recent observations and show how they compare to a typical El Niño pattern.  Hopefully you’ll walk away with a couple impressions.  The maps below are of the atmospheric flow (1) and precipitation anomalies, or departures, from the December & January average during El Niño (2).  Keep in mind no single year ever perfectly matches the “normal” El Niño pattern (3).  But how well is the pattern matching up so far this winter?

Image of wind anomalies and precipitation patterns.

(Top left) Reconstruction of El Niño wind anomalies during December and January. (Top right) The average wind anomaly from December 2015 and January 2016. (bottom left) Reconstruction of El Niño precipitation anomalies during December and January. (Bottom right) The average precipitation anomaly from December 2015 and January 2016. The 250mb winds are from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Precipitation is from the CPC Unified precipitation (Chen et al., 2008). The dataset is station based, so areas with sparse observing networks will not show anomalies or will show a roughly concentric anomaly around a station (this is the case over large regions of Canada). Anomalies are calculated by subtracting the 1981-2010 monthly averages. Image by Michelle L’Heureux and NOAA Climate.gov.

The warmth in the tropical Pacific related to El Niño fuels a more southward-shifted, eastward-extended Pacific jet stream. You can see this feature in the upper left panel above, which shows strong, anomalous winds flowing from west-to-east over the North Pacific Ocean.  The jet helps to drive moisture and precipitation into California.  For the December 2015 and January 2016 average (top right panel), we also can see an eastward expansion of the Pacific jet stream and wetter conditions prevailed over the northern half of California and the Pacific Northwest (Tom also wrote about January’s wet weather).    

El Niño is also linked to anomalous winds that extend from Central America to Florida and is linked to increased stormy weather and precipitation over the Gulf Coast and Florida.  So far this winter, we see a similar flow pattern with wetter conditions over portions of the Southeast and an uptick in tornadoes over Florida.

Impression #1:  Though this year’s impacts do not perfectly mirror the typical pattern, we’re already seeing El Niño’s thumbprints.  But he’s like the temperamental kid in art class who can’t quite stay in between the lines with his finger paint.   Part of that is because there are other weather and climate patterns, which provide distractions.  At a given time, El Niño is never the only influence on the atmosphere, but it is the most predictable, which is why we like to talk about it. 

Though the Pacific jet stream is juiced up and roaring this year, it is shifted slightly north of its typical position.  Likewise, the wetter-than-average West Coast signal has expanded northward into the Pacific Northwest as well.  This brings us to Impression #2: The details matter.  Even subtle changes in the overall circulation can result in noticeable impacts.  It is difficult to anticipate some of these shifts well in advance (4).

While El Niño is generally best seen in averages across 3-months (seasons), month-to-month variations can be significant (5). Again, there can be other things going on in the atmosphere, which can override El Niño.  After all, El Niño doesn’t mean the jet stays locked in the exact same place all winter and spring, just that it tends to return to a particular location more frequently than usual.  For example, in the figures below, the jet shifted north during December when it just so happened that we simultaneously saw a very positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) state, which might have contributed to this movement.  Then in January, the jet shifted back southward, more closely resembling the typical El Niño pattern. 

Image of wind anomalies based on averaging December 2015 and January 2016.

(Top) Wind anomalies based on averaging December 2015 and January 2016. (Middle) The wind anomaly from December 2015. (Bottom) The wind anomaly from January 2016. The 250mb winds are from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Image by Michelle L’Heureux and NOAA Climate.gov.

These unpredictable details, like the AO, are why CPC climate forecasters provide the odds (probabilities) for certain impacts, and they are never 100% over the U.S.  For example, this fall, forecasters indicated there would be a 60% chance of increased precipitation over southern California during the winter due to the knowledge there would be a strong, potentially historic El Niño.  A reliable probability forecast means that, for similar outlooks over a long record, 6 out of 10 years should end up wetter and 4 out of 10 years should be near average or drier (click further to learn how to interpret and grade probabilities). 

All in all, El Niño is enthusiastically reporting to work, even if its impacts are not identical to the “normal” pattern, and will exert an influence through the spring (March-April-May).  It has peaked by most atmospheric and oceanic measures, but it will continue to push the circulation around not only over North America, but also across the globe.

Footnotes

(1) This shows the 250-millibar (mb) winds, which are at the altitude where the pressure is 250mb. Pressure at the surface is roughly 1000mb and the 250mb pressure level is approximately at 6.5 miles above the surface in the mid-latitudes of North America.

(2) Similar to my last blog post, I’m calculating the “reconstruction” using the observed Niño-3.4 SST index values from December 2015 and January 2016.  Then I’m averaging together the December and January ENSO reconstruction maps because they’re similar.

(3) To emphasize, we have never ever seen a winter that looks exactly like the “normal” El Niño pattern.  Folks (including me!) love collecting past states from history and averaging them up to see what to expect -- and it can be useful summary information -- but it’s also misleading because we know the real world will be somewhat different.  Just keep that in mind whenever you see the words “average El Niño pattern” or “El Niño composite.” 

(4) General Life Advice:  We should always try to get better and make strides to improve.   But keep in mind there is a certain amount of uncertainty in climate prediction we’re probably not going to ever remove despite our very best efforts.  I can always wear high heels to give me some extra inches, but I’m probably not going to get any taller.   

(5) Another reason for the lack of similarity between the El Niño pattern and these 1- and 2-month snapshots is that they are always noisier and more chaotic.  This is akin to the idea of how global warming is best seen in the long-term trends over decades, but is harder to see with shorter-term bumps and wiggles.  El Niño is generally best seen in seasonal (3-month) averages. Ideally I would have shown you the December-January-February average, but I don’t have the February data yet. 

Comments

Otherwise flip a coin. ! No help to us. Nothing different!

In reply to by Cheryal GIA9113

how will all this affect the upcoming FL Hurricane season ?

In reply to by Cheryal GIA9113

By the time the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, this El Nino is expected to be finished and there is a likelihood that cool-neutral or even La Nina conditions will exist. La Nina tends to increase hurricane activity. But we can't be sure La Nina will develop by August, September and October, the months of climatologically greatest hurricane activity. The greater chance is for the later months. In any case, the influence of ENSO during the fall 2016 season is likely to be in the direction of elevated hurricane activity. We cannot predict which states (such as Florida) would have a land-falling hurricane, but increased general activity implies a somewhat increased likelihood for any of the usual southeastern states receiving one.

In reply to by jeff.bramblett…

Assume this is a question about California, maybe ven southern California.  There is some indication that the Pacific jet will shift enough to bring some rains to central and southern California in the week 2-4 time frame.  Time will tell if these forecasts are correct.

The graphics are nice but including anomalies for all El Niño episodes since 1951 obscures the fact that there is a large difference between the atmospheric patterns associated with the strongest events, and those for the weaker events. The circulation over the eastern subtropical Pacific this November through January 2016 has been much weaker than that observed for the other 5 strongest events (defined on the basis of persistent ONI anomalies exceeding threshold values). That is probably due to SST north of Hawaii still being warmer than that observed in other strong El Nino events, thus producing a weaker subtropical branch of the westerlies there.

This analysis was done using data only as far back as 1979 and includes all years (not just El Nino years).  As to why the difference, that's something that will be closely examined after this episode ends, but the reality is that the circulation associated with any event is likely to at least a little different from other events, as there is always some natural climate variabiabiity in the system.

The "warm blob" has a cause in my humble opinion. The lack of maximum sea ice(historic low) the allows more sunlight absorption into the ocean, the circulation brings that water to California during the spring when there are typically strong NW winds driving the surface water south which creates up welling and a much cooler blob that circulates to Hawaii in the summer. California(and HI as well) has lacked these trade winds for two years now. While I love surfing without my wetsuit in NorCal the lack of up welling off our coast hasn't happened like this before in the short 27 years I've lived here. Causation or correlation, I don't know but it's definitely worth paying attention to. There seems to me a significant relationship between AO, max/min arctic sea ice, and trade winds. On a different note, graphical awesomeness is awesome, keep it up please.

I note that this anomaly was 2.4 degrees, vs. only 1.9 degrees for Feb 18, 1998. I understand the disclaimer about weekly data not being that reliable, but assuming that the reading is not an aberration, why so much higher than the comparable week for the previous Super El Nino, and what, if anything, might it portend for the development of La Nina?

We'll get a better idea next week as to how the ocean compares to 1998 when the February monthly ERSST data comes in.  At this point, we are favoring this event to persist longer into the Spring than the 1997/98 event did.  We also judge there to be a 50% chance of La Nina developing by September - November (SON) 2016.  For comparison sake, La Nina began in June - August 1998, with the ONI at -1.2 during SON.

Unfortunately, as Southern California is going through its sixth straight drier than normal year due to a stubborn ridge that refuses to budge (Like we have see so often in the recent past) I was wondering why this is going on in a strong El Nino year. I had tried to get answers from our local National Weather Service but they never responded. Fortunately, you have helped. I really appreciate the work all of you do on this site to keep us informed. At least I have some possible answers from the last to articles that were written on this site. It is not looking good for Southern California. As I checked the latest GFS computer model runs they show no rain in sight for our region all the way through almost the middle of March. I also saw that a meteorologist on UCLA's weather web page say that he now has doubts whether we will have above normal rainfall this year. With a possible La Nina next year we could be looking at this historic drought going on for 7,8, etc. straight years. I hope I am wrong, but things look pretty bleak right now. Thanks again for all the work and research you do on this blog! It is greatly appreciated!!

I see that we seem to be stuck in a cycle where we seem here in New Mexico to be catching the tail end of storms pounding the northern and central Rockies. Why are there so many High Pressure cells affecting the SW US? Is the MJO going to affect our weather soon here in the SW US?

I appreciate the detail you put into this write up. It helps to explain why folks shouldn't assume that a 'strong el nino' guarantees rain in their area, no matter breaks records for 'strength'. The point you make about el nino not being alone in the teleconnection mix is one that seems to get lost in all the el nino talk. How the AO, NAO and PDO impact el nino is still not well enough understood and it's important that people who rely heavily on these forecasts (agriculture, water utilities, etc.) get that just like our day to day weather forecasts, there's always uncertainty with mother nature. NOAA CPC does a great job! But you guys don't control the weather right?! You just do your best to provide the best information clearly. Thanks for the insight!

The effect of El Nino is still here however the impact is still mild over west Africa. We are still observing the trend of event

Michelle, Loved your explanation. We see the same kind of influences out here in the tropical islands of the western North Pacific. While the over all pattern now is a very dry one as expected, there are some areas (e.g., Pohnpei and Kosrae) where the drought has been delayed (we think) and some other areas where 1 or 2 days of moderate to heavy showers occur over a 1-month period of otherwise very dry conditions. But, we still have to make sure the people across the region are prepared for a severe drought.

is Maine just screwed in terms of getting some big snow for us skiers?? how does the next 6 weeks look? Send Sugarloaf some snow love please. El Nino killed us.

Can you put this into perspective using the 2-class outlooks? They said over 90% probability for SoCal? Thanks!

The official CPC seasonal outlooks certainly favored above average precipitation, but the peak probability was about 60%, not 90%.  That also meant that that there was about a 33% chance of near average precipitation and a very low chance (but not zero) of below normal preciptation (5-10%). 

In reply to by James Brotherton

Seeing lots of impacts here in northern California with elevated sea level rise up until just recently, and the most erosion of coastal beaches/dunes I have seen since 98-99 when we had storms associated not with El Nino but with La Nina.

Fact. Dillon Beach and Salmon Creek have been scooped out way more than usual. More than I've ever seen.

In reply to by Andrea

If not for snowzilla before new years we would have the driest winter on record

Outstanding post. There are a lot of things I want in life, including predicable El Nino, elections and the Washington Nationals. Moving on to footnote #4 - why can't self improvement involve striving to be taller? Keep the hope alive!

NOAA and other weather prognosticators have been stating that the blocking ridge of high pressure that has been over most of California for now the sixth year is the key factor in this epic drought. There is now talk that this drought could become a ten plus year drought or even a "generational" drought, meaning a drought that could last twenty years or more. My wife and I live In Lake Arrowhead California and we have not had a winter here since 2010-11. We have a mass die off of trees up here in the San Bernardino forest as does most of southern California. We receive our water from a man made lake whose levels are at historic lows for this time of year and the lake has not been full in over five years. All of these anomalies and explanations really don't explain anything and the fact remains that southern California is in big trouble and a La Nina will only exacerbate this whole situation. The long range models show no rain for SOCAL through March and with it being February 26th with only two storms since December our rainy season has passed. It seems to me that this weather pattern could be the new normal for Southern California in which case if the drought persists for 2,3,4 years on we are looking at a catastrophe of epic proportions for those of us here in Southern California. For instance fire season here is now year round, we have been having warm Santa Ana wind events ALL winter which is just drying out the whole of SOCAL with no relief in sight. I think it's time we face the facts that El Nino for Southern California was a bust and start looking long term at what might possibly wipe out many of the inland communities here in Southern California as well as destroy our forests and lakes making many areas uninhabitable over the next two to three years due to lack of water.

Explanation accepted but I would also like an explanation as why california or southern california gets too many ridges of high pressure, I'm sure there is or are scientifics explanation to why of that?

The large scale pattern so far this winter is different from when there was the "ridicoulously resilient ridge" of the past winters.  I agree that when we look back at February (just one month), we'll see an anomalous ridge affecting California, but I'm betting this ridge will not be as resilient in the months ahead.  This ballgame still has innings left to play.

Michelle - On review of the NASA earth science satellite data since November, the various atmospheric gases - Ozone, Carbon Monoxide and Carbon Dioxide coupled with Water Vapor and Air Temperature across the Northern Hemisphere indicate factors that show a pattern that blocks the 'normal' El Nino water vapor uplift. Our planet's climate and the increase fossil (primarily Coal) burning fuel from China, and other fast pace nations all the way to Brazil could be the key to this abnormal El Nino. These gases in the jet stream have changed the playing field of El Nino. The levels of these man-made gases in the past 15 years are higher than the combine Industrial Revolutions of Great Britain and America.

I'm sorry, but the disclaimers don't totally fly. Bill Patzert of JPL pretty much described this as a can't-miss El Nino. Do I have to round up his quotes to prove it? This was as recent as about a month ago. I notice that he has been conspicously missing from JPL's latest pronouncements. Also, why wasn't the tendency for a blocking high taken into account when all of the pronouncements about a "record El Nino" were being issued last fall? The climate scientists are acting as though they've been totally blind-sided by the blocking high. Really? If they can't predict the blocking high and its impact, then I'd suggest that the science of El Nino is still far too flimsy to be issuing any forecasts. Maybe in another decade, but not now. I'm with Dr. Teel: we're in very serious trouble. Disaster lurks. People worry about the "Big One" on the southern section of the San Andreas Fault, but it looks like the drought is going to get us first.

Just to clarify, JPL is part of NASA and not NOAA.  Many scientists (not only Bill) are asked by reporters to give their opinion on what may happen, but this doesn't necessarily line up with the seasonal forecasts coming from NOAA CPC.   If you want to see the official NOAA outlooks, then I recommend directly consulting this webpage:  

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

The CPC seasonal outlook is put together by a team of forecaters who put together these forecasts *every month* (El Nino or not).   It is consensus based and strongly data/model driven.   It is much more difficult to put together a forecast based on team consensus vs. offering one's own opinion.  Also, unlike individual forecasts, these outlooks are verified (or graded) regularly.   So I think it's important to distinguish individual opinion from the collaborative work of professional NOAA seasonal climate forecasters.  

The blocking high seems to be a feature that has dominated the 1-month average (February), but one month isn't enough to dominate the seasonal (3-month) average.  I suspect the DJF (Dec-Feb) average will likely show wetter than average conditions in northern California, so arguably the blocking high hasn't been persistent or forceful enough to keep the state entirely dry during the DJF period.  Also, I think the large scale pattern is starting to look more favorable for wetter conditions in March (though these wetter conditions will not necessarily get CA out of the drought, which is a message NOAA has stated consistently since last year).  

In reply to by Curtis Croulet

Since before we first began hearing about the coming of the boy-child last year, we've experienced these, (uncharacteristic for Winter) huge high bubbles. These high pressure areas have prevented the jet stream from bringing that cue of storms in January and February. The local news weather bimbos are the ones who promised what was to be a significant dent in our drought and now have quit using any reference to it. All we see now that is even worth mentioning is higher waves and increased Santana conditions. March is traditionally a month that those winds are prevalent, so unless more anomalies are predicted, we should not see much more rain. I have not been able to find any info about what is causing these tremendous bubbles to occur out of season. Can you help with that? There used to be what was called "cloud seeding." Is there any chance it could be used again under the proper conditions?

I was hoping to see some kind of answer to at least one of my questions. The cloud seeding question was answered when I heard something on the local news about a week after I asked it. Apparently, they DID cloud seed in my area like they used to do in the 60's. I don't know what led me to ask about it before learning this. Maybe I'm psychic. As for wondering why we are dealing with these unseasonable high pressure ridges every year which are feeding the drought over SoCal, I am convinced you don't know why this is happening. Every question asked on here about it is ignored. I have tried to do my own research on it but have come up empty. Is there even a theory? Can it be attributed to global warming some way? Is it hot air from the candidates? Please comment.

It's not likely that the ridges that have minimized preciptiation over Southern California are related to global warming.  This pattern has certainly been less prevalent than the last few winters, but for reasons not yet understood, the majority of storminess that impacted the west coast this winter was mianly from northern California northward into the Pacific NW.  While not what we had seen during the 1997/98 or 1982/83 El Ninos, that's a very small sample size to be drawing huge inferences, and other climate patterns (the Arctic Oscilation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, maybe others) also played a role in determining the patterns of rainfall along the West Coast this past winter.

Guys, even though this year hasn't quite lived up yet to a classic El Nino, we still got a whole 3 months to get some rain, so we don't know for sure yet. For all we know, we could get several massive storms in a row in march that could fill up the rain gauges. It's happened before. Don't let your hopes up until may.

Will you do an assessment of this El Nino's impacts, esp vs. those of average years and previous El Niños? Forecasts -- but not NOAA's -- often described this in extreme terms. For example, not just as record-shattering but as a "Godzilla El Niño" (Godzilla being a giant city-destroying monster). Doing so would be helpful. We can only learn by assessing predictions vs. observations.

Hi Larry, yes, we do plan on eventually taking a look at the seasonal impacts across the country and globe during this El Nino compared to previous ones and average years. As we've been saying, no two El Nino's are the same and the same goes for their impacts. 

In reply to by Larry Kummer, …

I look forward to seeing it! So far the news is filled with unscientific, often hysterical, articles like this: "El Niño’s Disastrous Worldwide Consequences Are Just Getting Started" by Eric Holthaus at Slate, alleging that all bad weather around the world results from El Nino -- even events that began before the El Niño. No comparative analysis. NOAA's objective and fact-rich perspective is needed ASAP. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/07/el_nino_and_extreme_weather_will_be_a_theme_of_2016.html

Hi Larry,

There certainly have been extreme events with El Niños fingerprints this past year including some of those mentioned in that article. Just some examples include the drought in southern Africa, Central America, southeast Asia and across the Pacific island nations to name a few.

However, I will note that I wrote an article for the ENSO blog talking specifically about how we cannot blame every weather event on El Niño.

"But he’s like the temperamental kid in art class who can’t quite stay in between the lines with his finger paint." - what a strange metaphor. Surely no one would expect someone to stay in the lines with finger paint. Crayons, yes! Colored pencils, definitely! But finger paint? You're asking a lot, even from the most even-tempered youngster.

hay estimaciones para america del sur???? gracias por su respuesta

Add new comment