After a long watch, NOAA has issued an El Niño Advisory. What changed? And what does it mean for U.S. weather?
How do we verify forecasts that use probabilities? Read on to find out.
The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby. A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions.
For more than 6 months, NOAA has been issuing El Niño watches, but never an advisory. Here we show whether recent patterns in precipitation resemble those expected during El Niño.
At the beginning of February, the atmosphere was looking a little bit like El Niño. Is this just another rolling stone?
ENSO blogger Tony Barnston explains why climate forecasters can't get by with just a single indicator for predicting El Niño and La Niña.
The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub. These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.
Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.
Sea surface temperatures were chugging along in late fall of 2014. What's going on now?
Several times a year the MJO contributes to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during winter across the central and eastern portions of the country.