How are conditions related to drought likely to change? Colors on each map show experts' estimates of how conditions related to drought are likely to change by the end of the next three months. Areas where experts expect below-average precipitation or above-average temperatures (which increase evaporation) may see drought develop, persist, or worsen. Areas with forecasts for above-average precipitation may see drought conditions improve or end.

NOAA and NOAA-funded researchers are looking at extreme rain events from many different angles to identify new sources of predictability. The goal is to one day be able to predict such events weeks or months in advance.

Our blogger gives us a sci-fi themed update on the status of ENSO. Can you count all the references?

According to a long-term index of flower timing, most U.S. areas saw flowers emerge earlier than average, except for a few, mostly coastal areas.

Forecasters think the climate system is poised to bring most of the U.S. a warmer-than-average June, and little drought relief is likely across the West.

Thanks to the global oceans, Earth's surface temperature doesn't react instantly to the full impact of a climate disturbance. That delayed reaction has pros and cons.

Earth's surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the NOAA record in 1850. It may seem like a small change, but it's a tremendous increase in stored heat.

The U.S. tornado season to date has been very active. Our guest blogger explains how the lingering influence of La Niña might have played a role.

In the past 60 years, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased 100-200 times faster than it did during the end of the last ice age.

Wildfire smoke can cause air pollution in locations thousands of miles downwind. Health experts need to know what's in the smoke people are breathing—especially smoke from fires that burn into urban areas and ignite synthetic materials.